Edition, 18 stories.

Evening NOISE, Oct 17

U.S., 16:14, 5 sources, Update.

GOP allies turn on Trump over Russia sanctions waiver

President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday pausing the Graham Act, a sanctions law he signed last month targeting Russian energy exports, to enable a deal to import Russian diesel and lower fuel prices. At least eight Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis, joined Democrats in criticizing the waiver, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said disregarding the law amid Russia's massive strikes on Ukrainian energy would only encourage Moscow. Congress is out of session through the midterms, so lawmakers are pursuing legislation to block the diesel imports, though passage would require overcoming a possible Trump veto. Russia's overnight attacks killed at least four people in Ukraine, and a Ukrainian drone barrage disrupted flights at Moscow's airports.

Follow-up to Trump waives new Russia sanctions as row with Zelensky escalates, October 17

Signal read, tense. The orchard before the rain. Illustration: NOISE.

Reporting used

BloombergTrump’s Russia Sanctions Waiver Called Mistake by GOP Allies NPRZelenskyy urges support for new US sanctions on Russia after Trump puts them on hold

Related coverage

Signal read

Tense

Russia sanctions turmoil, midterm pressures and street unrest dominate, alongside Ukraine's worsening winter and a wobbling AI economy.

Oct 11, Heavy. Oct 12, Tense. Oct 13, Tense. Oct 14, Tense. Oct 15, Tense. Oct 16, Tense. Oct 17, Tense, latest.

Oct 11Oct 17

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Political polls

Snapshot Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET

Refreshed with Evening NOISE. Source dates appear with each reading. Some sources are unavailable.

Election forecasts

Published probabilities, separate from polling vote shares.

Race to the WH

2026 Senate Election Forecast

Outcome	Probability	Source date
Florida Senate Republican win	82.2%	Oct 16, 2026
Iowa Senate Democratic win	54.6%	Oct 16, 2026
Kansas Senate Republican win	53.1%	Oct 16, 2026
Maine Senate Democratic win	70.7%	Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota Senate Democratic win	88.0%	Oct 16, 2026
Mississippi Senate Republican win	91.9%	Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska Senate Republican win	69.3%	Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire Senate Democratic win	90.8%	Oct 16, 2026
Ohio Senate Democratic win	68.5%	Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Senate Republican win	77.7%	Oct 16, 2026

Sources and checks5 publishers, 5 individual polls

Recent individual polls

New Mexico House

Teresa Leger Fernandez 53.0%
Martin Zamora 39.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 16, 2026. Pollster: Research & Polling Inc.. Sponsor: Albuquerque Journal.

Field dates Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 362.

New Mexico House

Melanie Stansbury 53.0%
Ndidiamaka Okpareke 35.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 16, 2026. Pollster: Research & Polling Inc.. Sponsor: Albuquerque Journal.

Field dates Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 380.

Alaska Senate

Mary Peltola 48.0%
Dan Sullivan 47.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 16, 2026. Pollster: Public Policy Polling.

Field dates Oct 14, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026. Population: RV. Sample: 578. Partisan poll.

Maine Senate

Troy Jackson 49.0%
Susan Collins 47.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 16, 2026. Pollster: InsiderAdvantage.

Field dates Oct 13, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 1200.

Kansas Senate

Roger Marshall 48.0%
Adam Hamilton 47.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 16, 2026. Pollster: InsiderAdvantage.

Field dates Oct 13, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 1200.

Forecast targets

Race to the WH, 2026 Senate Election Forecast

Florida Senate Republican win: florida-senate-republican-win (R)
Iowa Senate Democratic win: iowa-senate-democratic-win (D)
Kansas Senate Republican win: kansas-senate-republican-win (R)
Maine Senate Democratic win: maine-senate-democratic-win (D)
Minnesota Senate Democratic win: minnesota-senate-democratic-win (D)
Mississippi Senate Republican win: mississippi-senate-republican-win (R)
Nebraska Senate Republican win: nebraska-senate-republican-win (R)
New Hampshire Senate Democratic win: new-hampshire-senate-democratic-win (D)
Ohio Senate Democratic win: ohio-senate-democratic-win (D)
South Dakota Senate Republican win: south-dakota-senate-republican-win (R)

Publisher checks

VoteHub, Available.

Source date: Oct 16, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET.

VoteHub polling data, CC BY 4.0.

Decision Desk HQ, Headline values unavailable.

Source date: Oct 4, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 04, 2026, 17:45 ET. Latest check did not return a usable dated reading.

270toWin, Available.

Source date: Oct 6, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Race to the WH, Available.

Source date: Oct 16, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Economist/YouGov, Available.

Source date: Oct 14, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 17, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Source-check times describe acquisition. They don't change a poll's field dates or a publisher's reading date. NOISE doesn't combine publishers' averages or calculate election forecasts.

U.S., 2 stories

The White House shook up its communications shop again, losing a press secretary after five days even as Trump initially backed Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, all with midterms two weeks off and record spending topping $10 billion.

12:44 Press secretary Katie Zacharia out after five days as Trump backs Wiles White House press secretary Katie Zacharia is leaving the job just five days after starting, following a widely panned first briefing and scrutiny over her claim to have passed the bar, with no record of her passing in any state. President Trump said he offered her the choice to resign and blamed nasty press coverage; she is expected to transition to another role. Trump also publicly endorsed Chief of Staff Susie Wiles as "phenomenal" after a week of infighting and questions about her future, saying she will stay for a long time. The turmoil lands just over two weeks before midterm elections that polls show Republicans at risk of losing, and the White House has gone months without regular press briefings since Karoline Leavitt's August departure.

3 sources

Reporting used

NPRKatie Zacharia is out as press secretary, White House says BloombergWhite House Turmoil Erupts as Trump Axes Zacharia, Backs Wiles

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08:00 Midterm spending tops $10 billion as Musk and Soros donate heavily Campaign spending for the 2026 midterm elections passed $10 billion this week, according to the tracking group AdImpact. The Ohio Senate race has cost more than $460 million in combined ad spending, Texas has surpassed half a billion, and Michigan's 7th congressional district is the most expensive House race at nearly $60 million. Elon Musk has given $276 million to Republican groups since July while George Soros has donated more than $100 million to Democrats this cycle, following the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision that allows unlimited super PAC donations. The spending surge comes as voters tell pollsters their top issues are the economy and the cost of living, with inflation up and groceries a third more expensive than in 2019.

1 source

Reporting used

NPRPerspective: Midterm money madness

World, 5 stories

France saw nationwide cost-of-living protests turn violent with hundreds arrested, while Trump's waiver of Russia sanctions split Republicans and left Kyiv bracing for winter strikes on its power grid ahead of a fragile peace push.

16:52 France protests turn violent as hundreds arrested in nationwide clashes Nationwide demonstrations in France against the cost of living and in support of protesting high school students erupted in violence on Saturday, with fires in Paris, Lyon and Limoges, looting, and police using tear gas and water cannon. Authorities reported at least 272 arrests by the interior minister's count, or 400 per the government, along with roughly 550,000 protesters and 60 injured police officers, while officials said several cities including Marseille, Rennes and Toulouse saw violence by masked groups. The unrest, which grew out of weeks of student school blockades and revived the 2018 'yellow vest' movement with union backing, comes ahead of next year's presidential election, and President Macron vowed that those who looted and damaged buildings would be prosecuted.

3 sources

Reporting used

NPRScuffles and fires break out as protesters rally across France, joining students BBCViolent clashes, looting and buildings ablaze as hundreds arrested after France protests

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10:40 Zelenskyy calls Starlink restrictions on Ukraine a 'planned operation' President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said speed restrictions on Ukraine's military Starlink and Starshield systems are deliberate, not a technical fault. Ukraine sent vehicles with Starlink terminals into EU territory where they worked at speeds above 180 kph, but connections cut out inside Ukraine at 161 kph, causing the loss of drones. The restrictions, which SpaceX's Elon Musk says are decided by the US military or the president, come as Trump suspended new Russia sanctions mandated by the Lindsey Graham law, hours after one of Russia's largest drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. A bipartisan group of senators has demanded a Pentagon inquiry into the disruptions, while Zelenskyy warned the sanctions waiver 'only helps the Russians' as Kyiv faces winter strikes on its power grid.

3 sources

Reporting used

FTZelenskyy says Starlink speed limits in Ukraine are a ‘planned operation’BloombergZelenskyy Says Starlink Speed Restrictions Look Deliberate

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17:18 Trump waives Russia sanctions to cut gas prices before midterms President Trump late Friday issued an executive order exempting Russia from sanctions under the Graham Act passed last month by Congress, a week after lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports. Gas prices averaged $4.31 a gallon Saturday, up nearly 45 percent since the start of the war, and the administration is also pressing Europe to resume buying Russian gas as part of a peace push. Russia welcomed the move while President Zelensky and Republicans including Senator John Cornyn and Senator Thom Tillis denounced it as aiding Putin, though the executive branch retains broad discretion over congressionally mandated sanctions. The relief follows earlier US strikes on Iran in February that disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries that Trump blames for high energy prices.

1 source

Reporting used

NYTTrump Offers Putin Economic Relief in Hopes That Russia Will Return the Favor

16:43 Masked Israeli settlers attack European diplomats in West Bank Masked Israeli settlers attacked a delegation of European diplomats visiting Taybeh, a largely Christian village near Ramallah, to assess settler violence during the olive harvest. A Belgian consulate car had a window smashed and Bernard Baudoux, the mayor of Aulnoye-Aymeries in France, said he was kicked and beaten with iron bars. Belgium condemned the attack and called for justice and EU sanctions, while the IDF also condemned the violence but said no soldiers were present, and Netanyahu's office suggested the incident was part of a "coordinated campaign to smear Israel" as police investigate. The attack came a day after settlers injured Palestinians and a Washington Post photographer in a separate West Bank assault.

4 sources

Reporting used

BBCEuropean diplomats attacked by Israeli settlers in West Bank

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08:56 Russian hybrid attacks heighten fears of wider war in Europe Russian hybrid warfare against European backers of Ukraine, including sabotage, arson and assassinations, greatly increases the risk of accidental escalation, according to FT chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman. Poland has warned of the danger of Russian attacks inside the EU causing fatalities, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that Europe is "not at war, but we are no longer at peace either." Rachman writes that the International Crisis Group counts 65 ongoing conflicts worldwide, the most since the Second World War, and that the Gulf and Russia-Ukraine wars have overlapped in ways that tie Russia, China, Iran and North Korea into an axis Western officials view with concern. The risk, he argues, lies partly in doubts over whether alliance commitments such as NATO's Article Five would still be honoured.

2 sources

Reporting used

FTAre we sleepwalking into World War III?

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Germany, 2 stories

Berlin's Left Party, Greens and SPD agreed to vote on formal coalition talks, hoping a leftist alliance can counter a surging AfD that now polls first nationally at 29 percent amid erosion of Germany's center.

17:14 Berlin leftist parties near coalition as the far-right AfD surges Berlin's Left Party, Greens and SPD concluded exploratory talks on Saturday and agreed to put formal coalition negotiations to a vote by their members, with talks possible in early November. The Left won 25.7% in September's state election, and the prospective program includes up to 160,000 apartments under public ownership and 100,000 affordable flats planned by 2031. Nationally, the far-right AfD polls first at 29% while the CDU/CSU sits at 18%, underscoring what analysts describe as an erosion of Germany's traditional center parties and deepening political crisis.

1 source

Reporting used

DWGermany news: Berlin's leftist parties move step closer to forming government

Fri 11:31 Germany and France agree deal to support Europe's struggling car industry Germany and France have reached an agreement to protect Europe's automotive industry, with plans to cut CO2 emissions and support the development and construction of electric cars in Europe. According to a Handelsblatt report, the two leaders agreed in principle to require automakers to cut exhaust emissions from new cars by 90% from 2035 without offsetting the remaining 10%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called it a "good day for car drivers and for jobs," while Volkswagen welcomed the deal as a "strong signal." The pact, aimed at helping European automakers compete with Chinese electric car rivals, still needs backing from other EU states and the European Parliament to become law.

1 source

Reporting used

DWGermany, France agree on deal to support Europe's struggling car industry

Business, 2 stories

Markets are watching the AI build-out's debt financing wobble as comparisons to 2000 resurface, while Berkshire Hathaway shares climbed to their highest since Buffett announced his exit, an early vote of confidence in Greg Abel.

07:40 Comparisons to 2000 stir market worries as AI debt markets wobble Axios' Neil Irwin laid out parallels between today's economy and that of 2000, when robust tech-driven growth, 3.8% unemployment, 4.1% GDP growth and 3.4% inflation prompted Alan Greenspan's Fed to raise rates three times, including a half-point hike in May 2000. Greenspan argued the productivity boom was creating imbalances by lifting stock prices and demand faster than supply, language Axios says applies to today's AI boom. The stock market peaked in March 2000, and after cracks appeared in the tech sector, the Fed cut rates 11 times in 2001 as a tech bust spilled into a mild recession. Axios is not predicting a repeat, but the comparison comes as debt markets funding the AI build-out have wobbled this week.

1 source

Reporting used

AxiosThat Y2K feeling: Why today's economy resembles 2000

11:11 Berkshire shares rally to highest since Buffett announced CEO exit Berkshire Hathaway shares closed Friday at their highest level since Warren Buffett told shareholders at the May 2025 annual meeting he would step down as CEO at the end of that year. Class A shares ended at $798,000 and Class B shares at $532.02, both just 1.4% below all-time closing highs, rebounding more than 1% after a 10-session winning streak added 5%. The recovery comes as investors gain confidence under CEO Greg Abel, with $4.5 billion of Q2 buybacks, higher short-term rates boosting returns on roughly $360 billion in cash, and a bet of about $930 million in Bending Spoons now showing an on-paper gain of more than 55%. Coca-Cola, a $37.6 billion holding, closed at an all-time high and moved Berkshire's portfolio up to its third largest stake, as the stock cut its deficit versus the S&P 500 for the year to 6.0 percentage points.

1 source

Reporting used

CNBCBerkshire shares buck market sell-off, rally to highest since Buffett said he would step down as CEO

Tech, 3 stories

Meta quietly stripped AI-scraping language from its business terms after backlash, Anthropic's workforce data showed junior technical hires plummeting, and Tesla wowed with a hovering Roadster two that won't ship until 2028.

17:20 Tesla unveils Roadster 2 with fans and thrusters, production not until 2028 Tesla demonstrated its long-delayed Roadster 2 at SpaceX's McGregor, Texas facility, where the unpiloted EV drove up a vertical ramp, hung upside down, and flipped midair before landing. Engineering head Lars Moravy said the car uses four 20-kilowatt fans with retractable skirts to generate over 2 g of downforce, plus a "SpaceX system" of cold gas nitrogen thrusters delivering more than 80 kilonewtons of thrust, driving 0 to 60 mph in under a second and a 230 mph top speed in the Thrust trim. The technology echoes earlier fan cars like the 1970 Chaparral 2J, 1978 Brabham BT46, and McMurtry Spéirling. Reservations are open, but production is not slated until 2028, nine years after the car was first announced, and it remains unclear how regulators will treat a car that leaves the ground.

3 sources

Reporting used

EngadgetThe Tesla Roadster is far from the first car to use fans for downforce WiredHere’s Exactly How Tesla Made Its New 230-Mph Car ‘Fly’

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17:31 Meta removes terms language that raised AI scraping concerns Meta has deleted language from its commercial terms of use that said the company could use content from business accounts' domains, web pages, or URLs to develop, improve, research, and train its products. Legal experts, including Cornell professor James Grimmelmann, had read the provision as granting Meta the right to scrape publishers' sites for AI training and to override robots.txt blocking preferences. Meta insisted the terms only covered its ads and business products and said in a statement that the update does not change how it uses web crawlers. The removal came after backlash and follows Meta's defeat last year of a high-profile copyright lawsuit, while other AI-related cases continue.

2 sources

Reporting used

TCMeta removes language that raised scraping and AI training concerns VergeMeta removes language that may have allowed it to scrape news sites

16:21 Anthropic workforce shifts as AI changes hiring and meetings Anthropic published a report on Friday describing major changes in how its staff works as it builds workflows around its Claude AI. The share of junior technical hires fell from 27% to 9% since early 2025, technical staff dropped from 61% to 56% of the workforce, and meeting time per employee rose 20% year over year. The company says AI adoption has boosted productivity in code, sales, and contracts, but human attention to manage Claude output is becoming a bottleneck, and it sees the trends as indicators of how AI may reshape work across the economy.

1 source

Reporting used

TCAnthropic says its workforce has become less junior and is spending more time in meetings

Sports, 3 stories

Fourth-ranked Ohio State survived fifth-ranked Indiana 19-15 after a fourth-down catch was ruled out of bounds, snapping a 22-game Hoosiers streak, though Julian Sayin's arm injury may make the win expensive.

15:57 Eagles place Jalen Hurts on IR due to blood clot The Philadelphia Eagles placed quarterback Jalen Hurts on injured reserve after a superficial blood clot in his calf moved, and he is expected to be out indefinitely. The team made the decision Saturday after consulting multiple doctors, as blood thinners of at least six weeks are typical treatment and players cannot compete on them; some NFL doctors estimated a six-week absence. Backup Tanner McKee starts Sunday against Carolina, with rookie Cole Payton promoted and Joe Milton signed off Dallas' practice squad. The loss compounds a rough stretch for Philadelphia, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL in scoring and total offense and must also navigate hamstring injuries to Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, Lane Johnson's retirement, and the trade of Cam Jurgens.

1 source

Reporting used

ESPNEagles QB Jalen Hurts on IR due to blood clot, expected to be out indefinitely

16:30 Bears plan to start QB Caleb Williams vs. Falcons in Week 6 The Chicago Bears plan to start quarterback Caleb Williams on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons after he missed three games with a torn hamstring, sources told NFL Network and ESPN. Williams, injured in Week 2 against the Vikings, took starter reps and completed a full week of practice without setbacks, though the Bears list him as questionable. Chicago went 2-1 in his absence behind Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent, and his return gives the team its starter back against Atlanta.

1 source

Reporting used

ESPNSources: Bears plan to start QB Caleb Williams in Week 6 vs. Falcons

16:14 Ohio State survives Indiana after Marsh ruled out of bounds No. 4 Ohio State beat No. 5 Indiana 19-15 in Bloomington on Saturday when a catch on fourth down by Nick Marsh in the end zone was ruled out of bounds, erasing what would have been Indiana's go-ahead score. Julian Sayin threw a 38-yard touchdown pass to Jeremiah Smith on fourth down early in the fourth quarter, and the win ended Indiana's 22-game winning streak and 19-game home winning streak while snapping Ohio State's three-game skid against top-10 teams. The victory could prove costly: Sayin left the game with an apparent right arm injury and watched the final minutes in a sling, while Indiana's Josh Hoover played through a shoulder injury in a 20-of-40, 296-yard passing performance. It was the first home loss of coach Curt Cignetti's three seasons and the first top-five matchup in Memorial Stadium history.

1 source

Reporting used

ESPNOhio State survives Indiana after Marsh ruled out of bounds