NOISEEdition
Morning NOISE, Oct 25

Assembled by NOISE. Sunday, October 25, 2026, 7:58 ET.

Edition, 18 stories.

Morning NOISE, Oct 25

U.S., , 4 sources.

Hundreds of thousands protest across France as bond yields hit 24-year high

About 110,000 people marched in Paris and 300,000 elsewhere in France on Saturday in the second round of nationwide protests, with 1,314 arrests and scattered clashes; unions have called for strikes on Nov. 5. The unrest has unfolded as France’s 10-year bond yield passed 5% for the first time since 2002, and Moody’s warned that the protests could hamper fiscal consolidation. Analysts expect growth of just 0.1% in the third quarter, adding to pressure on the government ahead of next April’s presidential election.

Signal read, tense. Weather across the high heath. Illustration: NOISE.

Signal read

Tense
Campaigns and crises collide as elections, protests, tariffs, security threats, and market jitters converge.
Oct 19, Tense. Oct 20, Tense. Oct 21, Tense. Oct 22, Tense. Oct 23, Tense. Oct 24, Tense. Oct 25, Tense, latest.
Oct 19Oct 25
MarketsSessionLastChange
S&P futures 7,659.75 -0.58%
SPCX 147.49 +1.89%

Political polls

Snapshot

Carried from the Oct 24, 2026 evening snapshot. Source dates appear with each reading.

Election forecasts

Published probabilities, separate from polling vote shares.

Race to the WH

2026 Senate Election Forecast

OutcomeProbabilitySource date
Florida Senate Republican win 80.6%
Michigan Senate Democratic win 83.3%
Minnesota Senate Democratic win 88.5%
Montana Senate Republican win 77.1%
Nebraska Senate Republican win 69.8%
North Carolina Senate Democratic win 93.6%
Ohio Senate Democratic win 68.9%
South Dakota Senate Republican win 90.2%
Texas Senate Democratic win 74.5%
Sources and checks5 publishers, 5 individual polls

Recent individual polls

Texas Senate

  • James Talarico 47.6%
  • Ken Paxton 45.2%
  • Ted Brown 1.4%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: VoteHub/Verasight.

Field dates Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 601.

Texas House

  • Vicente Gonzalez 50.0%
  • Eric Flores 43.0%
  • Eddie Espinoza 2.0%
  • Chris Royal 1.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

Field dates Oct 14, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 626.

Texas Senate

  • James Talarico 51.0%
  • Ken Paxton 47.0%
  • Ted Brown 2.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Slingshot Strategies. Sponsor: Texas Public Opinion Research.

Field dates Oct 15, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 969.

New Hampshire House

  • Stefany Shaheen 46.0%
  • Anthony DiLorenzo 42.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Saint Anselm.

Field dates Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 861.

New Hampshire House

  • Maggie Goodlander 54.0%
  • Lily Tang Williams 38.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Saint Anselm.

Field dates Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 861.

Forecast targets

Race to the WH, 2026 Senate Election Forecast

Florida Senate Republican win
florida-senate-republican-win (R)
Michigan Senate Democratic win
michigan-senate-democratic-win (D)
Minnesota Senate Democratic win
minnesota-senate-democratic-win (D)
Montana Senate Republican win
montana-senate-republican-win (R)
Nebraska Senate Republican win
nebraska-senate-republican-win (R)
North Carolina Senate Democratic win
north-carolina-senate-democratic-win (D)
Ohio Senate Democratic win
ohio-senate-democratic-win (D)
South Dakota Senate Republican win
south-dakota-senate-republican-win (R)
Texas Senate Democratic win
texas-senate-democratic-win (D)

Publisher checks

VoteHub, Available.

Source date: Oct 23, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

VoteHub polling data, CC BY 4.0.

Decision Desk HQ, Headline values unavailable.

Source date: Oct 4, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 04, 2026, 17:45 ET. Latest check did not return a usable dated reading.

270toWin, Available.

Source date: Oct 21, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Race to the WH, Available.

Source date: Oct 24, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Economist/YouGov, Available.

Source date: Oct 20, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Source-check times describe acquisition. They don't change a poll's field dates or a publisher's reading date. NOISE doesn't combine publishers' averages or calculate election forecasts.

U.S., 2 stories

Trump is closing the midterm sprint in four states as Democrats court Latinos, who now favor them by 30 points, a reversal from 2024. A risky super PAC ad also backfired after its star pleaded guilty to child endangerment.

Trump rallies in four states as Democrats court Latinos before midterms With Election Day less than two weeks away, President Trump is campaigning in Iowa, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan as Democrats court Latino voters. A New York Times/Siena poll shows Latinos now favor Democrats by 30 points, a reversal from 2024, when Trump won 44 percent of Hispanic voters; the group makes up at least 20 percent of registered voters in nearly two dozen competitive House races and could help Democrats win control of Congress. Democrats are also making a push in Arkansas, where candidates are running against high prices and tariffs, while a surge in Black turnout after the Supreme Court weakened part of the Voting Rights Act could affect Southern races.
3 sources
Iowa ad critic who called Democrat dangerous pleaded guilty to endangering kids Shellie Flockhart, a Republican city councilwoman who appears in a Congressional Leadership Fund ad accusing Iowa Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott of endangering children, pleaded guilty in 2017 to child endangerment and drunk driving after authorities said she drove with two children in her car. Court records show a breath test registered 0.254 blood alcohol content, more than three times the legal limit. The super PAC spent at least $1 million on the ad, which targets Trone Garriott's vote against a school bathroom bill as she challenges Rep. Zach Nunn in a competitive Iowa House district. Flockhart called the incident 'inexcusable' and said it does not define her.
1 source

World, 5 stories

Four pivotal elections in ten days will test democratic norms as Brazil, Serbia, Israel and the US choose between pro-democracy and autocratic paths, while an escalating Iran standoff raises fears of full-scale war.

Four pivotal elections put democratic norms to the test Brazil, Serbia, Israel and the US hold elections within ten days, with pro-democracy forces facing current or aspiring autocrats. Brazil's runoff pits President Lula against far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, while Serbia's student-led movement challenges Aleksandar Vučić; Israel votes on Netanyahu's coalition and the US holds midterms on November 3. The results could accelerate or reverse a global decline in democratic freedoms, which V-Dem Institute says have fallen to 1978 levels.
4 sources
Kim Jong Un inaugurates new China bridge in rare visit North Korean leader Kim Jong Un crossed a newly opened bridge into China on Saturday, his first visit there in a year. In Dandong, he met Wang Huning, a senior Chinese Communist Party official, visited a Korean War memorial, and toured a car factory. Kim vowed to expand cooperation with Beijing, which has sought to restore influence over North Korea after years of Kim prioritizing ties with Russia. The New Yalu River Bridge, opened after more than a decade of delay, is expected to boost two-way trade.
2 sources
Trump warns of Iran strikes as intelligence flags plots against US New US intelligence indicates Iran is in advanced stages of planning attacks on American officials, including ambassadors in the Middle East and officials on US soil. Trump has signaled he may order major strikes inside Iran after the midterm elections, with plans said to target energy infrastructure. Iranians say they are preparing surprise attacks with 'zero red lines' and see the next phase as existential. The standoff is raising fears of full-scale war as both sides consider pretexts for action before US and Israeli elections.
2 sources
Houthi attacks upend Riyadh Air's launch in Saudi Arabia Riyadh Air, Saudi Arabia's new flagship airline, has halted almost all flying after Houthi missile attacks on King Khalid International Airport killed more than a dozen people and damaged the terminal. The carrier evacuated its Boeing 787 Dreamliners from Riyadh and resumed limited flights via an airport in Al Qassim province, about 200 miles away, followed by a 4½-hour bus ride to the capital. The airline plans to restart fuller operations on Sunday, though not to Riyadh. The disruption shows how the war with Yemen's Houthis is complicating Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitions to build a high-end carrier.
1 source
US brings Maduro exile back to negotiate with his loyalists The Trump administration tapped exiled former Venezuelan lawmaker Dinorah Figuera to return to Caracas and lead negotiations with Nicolás Maduro's loyalists over a democratic transition. The third round of talks ended this week, with the government easing some media restrictions and agreeing to review laws limiting political rights, though no election timetable has been set. More than 80% of Venezuelans distrust the talks, and prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado says Washington excluded her. The process is a test of whether cooperating with the regime can secure elections without legitimizing it.
1 source

Germany, 3 stories

A fire has almost completely destroyed Hitler's Eagle's Nest retreat in Bavaria, with police arresting a 33-year-old German man suspected of arson; the blaze reignited overnight, forcing firefighters back out.

Fire devastates Hitler's Eagle's Nest retreat in Bavaria; suspect detained A fire that broke out Friday evening at Hitler's Eagle's Nest retreat in the Bavarian Alps has almost completely destroyed the building and caused millions of euros in damage. No one was injured, but the blaze flared up again overnight into Sunday after smoldering embers ignited flames at room height, prompting another deployment of firefighters. Police arrested a 33-year-old German man suspected of starting the fire; an initial psychiatric assessment indicated mental illness. The site, built in 1938 as a guest house for Nazi officials and a restaurant since 1952, has long been a focal point in debates over how Germany handles Nazi-era landmarks.
4 sources
Germany declines Under-15 World Cup invite as Russia returns Germany was among 22 countries to decline an invitation to the inaugural Under-15 World Cup in Azerbaijan, which began this week and marks Russia's return to FIFA competition after its 2022 suspension. The German Football Association said the tournament was not appropriate for players so young, citing pressure, public evaluation, and early agent interest. Eighteen of the 22 refusals came from European federations, with Ukraine and the US also declining. Germany cited youth development rather than Russia's participation as its reason, but Russia's presence has drawn criticism.
1 source
Wadephul warns shipping attacks threaten famine as Merz heads to Asia German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned Friday that attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea could bring famine to the global south, saying fertilizer shortages would hit basic food production for the world's poorest. Speaking ahead of a first 'R4+E3' summit in Istanbul with counterparts from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, France and the UK, he offered talks with Iran alongside France and the UK and urged Russia to make a deal securing Black Sea shipping. The warning ties distant wartime disruptions to everyday economic security for Germans, who feel the effects 'at the gas station or in the supermarket.' Meanwhile Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a trip next week to Singapore, Japan and South Korea to strengthen economic resilience and supply chain security with a business delegation, and Germany arrested a Ukrainian man accused of spying for Russia on NATO military sites from Brandenburg.
1 source

Business, 3 stories

Trump announced Volkswagen-owned Audi will build a $4 billion Georgia plant, a tariff-driven win he touted days before midterms, even as European luxury groups lose €250bn on fading Chinese demand.

Trump says Audi will build $4 billion Georgia factory President Donald Trump announced at a Georgia campaign rally that Volkswagen-owned Audi will build a $4 billion auto plant in Macon, Georgia. The factory will produce 200,000 SUVs a year, starting in the early 2030s, and create about 4,500 jobs. Trump credited his tariffs for the investment, which he touted as a boon for American manufacturing days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
3 sources
IndiGo and Air India to shift flights to new Mumbai airport IndiGo and Air India will move some international flights to Navi Mumbai International Airport, which opens as a second hub for India's financial capital. IndiGo will progressively shift 12 daily international departures from Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport starting February 2027, including services to Gulf destinations, Dhaka, Jakarta, and Kathmandu. Air India Group will gradually transfer some Middle East flights from January, with the transition complete by the 2027 summer schedule; Air India Express starts four daily domestic flights in December 2026. The shift rebalances capacity across Mumbai's dual-airport system as Terminal 1 is redeveloped, and it affects passengers flying out of Mumbai.
1 source
Luxury groups lose €250bn in market value as Chinese demand fades Top European luxury groups have lost about €250bn in market value this year as spending by Chinese consumers declines. Europe's six largest listed luxury companies, including LVMH, Hermès, and Kering, have shed a combined €251bn, with LVMH down €131.6bn and Hermès down €93.3bn. Demand from China has weakened amid a property slump and weak stock markets, with monthly retail sales growth averaging under 0.5 per cent over the past six months. The losses underscore the luxury sector's heavy reliance on Chinese shoppers after more than a decade of growth driven by that market.
1 source

Tech, 2 stories

Amgen's immunotherapy combo cut death risk by 58% in aggressive small cell lung cancer, a result that could push Imdelltra to earlier use. Meanwhile, Apple's first foldable joins the buying guide, with trade-offs.

Best folding phones for 2026 include Apple's iPhone Duo Wired's updated 2026 folding phone guide adds Apple's iPhone Duo and names Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold8 the best overall foldable. The top picks range from the $800 Motorola Razr to the $2,100 Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra, with flip-style models offering portability and book-style models prioritizing multitasking. Apple's debut foldable starts at $1,999 but lacks Face ID and a telephoto lens, while the $1,849 Pixel 11 Pro Fold offers IP68 durability and Qi2 wireless charging. Buyers face trade-offs in price, camera quality, battery life, and durability.
1 source
Amgen combo cuts death risk by 58% in aggressive lung cancer Amgen presented full late-stage trial results at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress showing that adding its immunotherapy Imdelltra to AstraZeneca's Imfinzi cut the risk of death by 58% in patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer. Median overall survival was 21.1 months with the combination versus 12.7 months with Imfinzi alone, and nearly 80% of combo patients were alive at one year versus 53%. The fast-growing cancer accounts for an estimated 60% to 70% of roughly 31,000 new U.S. small cell lung cancer cases each year, and the results could position Imdelltra as an earlier treatment option.
1 source

Sports, 2 stories

Luke Drzewiecki's buzzer-beating 46-yard field goal gave Minnesota a 13-10 win over No. 15 Iowa, reclaiming the Floyd of Rosedale and all three rivalry trophies for the first time since 1978.

Courtois out of Clásico with flu, Lunin to start for Real Madrid Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will miss the Clásico against Barcelona at Camp Nou with flu. Andriy Lunin will replace him in goal, with Illia Voloshyn called up to the squad. Madrid enter the LaLiga match trailing leaders Barcelona by six points after two league defeats this season, while Barcelona have won every league game. Courtois had played a starring role in Madrid's recent form, including their 4-1 Champions League win over RB Leipzig, and Vinícius Júnior is also suspended.
1 source
Drzewiecki's last-second field goal lifts Minnesota past No. 15 Iowa Luke Drzewiecki kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired, giving Minnesota a 13-10 win over No. 15 Iowa and the Floyd of Rosedale trophy for the first time since 2023. The Gophers held Iowa to 90 rushing yards, forced three interceptions, and got a key 39-yard pass from Drake Lindsey to Jalen Smith to set up the winning kick. Minnesota improved to 5-2 and now holds its three primary rivalry trophies for the first time since 1978.
1 source

Game board

Scores from ESPN. Alternative and saved schedules are labeled on each game; game links open ESPN.