NOISEEdition
Evening NOISE, Oct 24

Assembled by NOISE. Saturday, October 24, 2026, 18:13 ET.

Edition, 16 stories.

Evening NOISE, Oct 24

U.S., , 3 sources.

Obama attacks Trump as both campaign in final midterm stretch

Former President Barack Obama attacked President Trump in searing terms at a Cleveland rally Saturday, saying the administration has brought “two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption” and that “incompetence the likes of which we have not seen in modern times” defines it. Obama also condemned Republican Ohio governor nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad targeting Democratic nominee Amy Acton’s family history, saying there was “no line” Ramaswamy would not cross. Trump was scheduled to rally in Georgia later Saturday and in Michigan on Sunday; Obama planned to go to Detroit later Saturday. With midterms less than two weeks away, control of Congress and statehouses is at stake, and polls show Trump’s approval has plummeted as Republicans defend high prices.

Signal read, tense. The wood at storm's edge. Illustration: NOISE.

Signal read

Tense
Midterm clashes, war-related Starlink disputes, AI hacks, and global elections dominate.
Oct 18, Tense. Oct 19, Tense. Oct 20, Tense. Oct 21, Tense. Oct 22, Tense. Oct 23, Tense. Oct 24, Tense, latest.
Oct 18Oct 24
MarketsSessionLastChange
S&P 500 close 7,623.68 -0.52%
Dow close 52,215.16 -1.23%
Nasdaq close 25,955.34 -0.21%
CRWD 257.57 +8.25%
AMZN 248 -0.95%
SPCX 147.49 +1.89%

Political polls

Snapshot

Refreshed with Evening NOISE. Source dates appear with each reading. Some sources are unavailable.

Election forecasts

Published probabilities, separate from polling vote shares.

Race to the WH

2026 Senate Election Forecast

OutcomeProbabilitySource date
Florida Senate Republican win 80.6%
Michigan Senate Democratic win 83.3%
Minnesota Senate Democratic win 88.5%
Montana Senate Republican win 77.1%
Nebraska Senate Republican win 69.8%
North Carolina Senate Democratic win 93.6%
Ohio Senate Democratic win 68.9%
South Dakota Senate Republican win 90.2%
Texas Senate Democratic win 74.5%
Sources and checks5 publishers, 5 individual polls

Recent individual polls

Texas Senate

  • James Talarico 47.6%
  • Ken Paxton 45.2%
  • Ted Brown 1.4%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: VoteHub/Verasight.

Field dates Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 601.

Texas House

  • Vicente Gonzalez 50.0%
  • Eric Flores 43.0%
  • Eddie Espinoza 2.0%
  • Chris Royal 1.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

Field dates Oct 14, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 626.

Texas Senate

  • James Talarico 51.0%
  • Ken Paxton 47.0%
  • Ted Brown 2.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Slingshot Strategies. Sponsor: Texas Public Opinion Research.

Field dates Oct 15, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 969.

New Hampshire House

  • Stefany Shaheen 46.0%
  • Anthony DiLorenzo 42.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Saint Anselm.

Field dates Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 861.

New Hampshire House

  • Maggie Goodlander 54.0%
  • Lily Tang Williams 38.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Saint Anselm.

Field dates Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 861.

Forecast targets

Race to the WH, 2026 Senate Election Forecast

Florida Senate Republican win
florida-senate-republican-win (R)
Michigan Senate Democratic win
michigan-senate-democratic-win (D)
Minnesota Senate Democratic win
minnesota-senate-democratic-win (D)
Montana Senate Republican win
montana-senate-republican-win (R)
Nebraska Senate Republican win
nebraska-senate-republican-win (R)
North Carolina Senate Democratic win
north-carolina-senate-democratic-win (D)
Ohio Senate Democratic win
ohio-senate-democratic-win (D)
South Dakota Senate Republican win
south-dakota-senate-republican-win (R)
Texas Senate Democratic win
texas-senate-democratic-win (D)

Publisher checks

VoteHub, Available.

Source date: Oct 23, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

VoteHub polling data, CC BY 4.0.

Decision Desk HQ, Headline values unavailable.

Source date: Oct 4, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 04, 2026, 17:45 ET. Latest check did not return a usable dated reading.

270toWin, Available.

Source date: Oct 21, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Race to the WH, Available.

Source date: Oct 24, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Economist/YouGov, Available.

Source date: Oct 20, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Source-check times describe acquisition. They don't change a poll's field dates or a publisher's reading date. NOISE doesn't combine publishers' averages or calculate election forecasts.

U.S., 2 stories

The day’s politics are a study in executive overreach and political retreat: Democrats are fighting the Justice Department’s bid to block Alaska’s Senate certification, while Trump rolls back Canadian tariffs under midterm pressure.

Democrats challenge Justice Department bid to block Alaska Senate certification Democratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to intervene in a federal lawsuit the Justice Department filed to block Alaska from certifying its Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The department argues that a challenger with a nearly identical name could confuse voters; President Trump said he ordered the suit. The intervenors say the executive branch lacks authority to override state election administration. The move drew bipartisan criticism, including from Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
2 sources
Trump cuts Canadian tariffs after Republican midterm pressure Update President Donald Trump will eliminate 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian agriculture and forestry goods, following pressure from Republicans in tight midterm Senate races. The relief covers machinery, packaging, and plastic crates and takes effect October 30; the White House also added tariffs on other items including valves and carpets. Republicans in Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire have called the duties a political liability amid voter concerns about inflation. Canadian industry groups welcomed the step but urged stable rules-based trade.
1 source

World, 6 stories

Israel’s election is too close to call and Brazil heads to a runoff, while Jordan buries seven victims of a church funeral shooting; the day turns on voters, mourning, and fragile ceasefires.

Ukraine says Starlink speeds restored after weeklong restrictions Update Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Saturday that Starlink and Starshield operating speeds have been restored after more than a week of disruptions. The networks had been capped at about 100 mph and are now running above 250 mph, according to ministry monitoring. Starlink is critical to Ukraine's drone operations, logistics, frontline communications, and defense against Shahed drones, so the speed limits had hindered missions and drone interceptions.
2 sources
Gunmen kill 7 and wound 40 at Jordan church funeral Gunmen opened fire during a funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in Karak, Jordan, on Friday, killing seven people and wounding 40, authorities said. The government called the attackers unknown assailants and said investigations were underway, while Jordan declared three days of national mourning. The attack took place in Karak, which is home to a minority Christian population, and King Abdullah II vowed the harshest penalties.
2 sources
Trump advisers see opportunity beyond Netanyahu as Israel votes Israel votes Tuesday with polls showing Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition falling short of a parliamentary majority, projected at 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset versus 61 needed to govern. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc is projected at 52-56 seats, with Arab Israeli parties holding the balance. President Trump endorsed Netanyahu, but some of his advisers see a new Israeli government as easier to work with on Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and a Saudi deal. If neither bloc can form a government, Israel could face another election, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister.
1 source
Philippine air force planes collide in training, killing all 4 pilots Two Philippine air force SF-260 planes collided midair during a training flight Friday at Fernando Air Base in Lipa city, Batangas province, killing all four pilots. The air force has grounded its remaining SF-260s while investigating the accident. The crash is the latest setback for the underfunded Philippine military, which faces decades-long insurgencies and territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.
1 source
Melania Trump brokers ceasefire to allow aid in Russian-occupied Oleshky First lady Melania Trump has brokered a local ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, in the southern Kherson region. The ceasefire starts Tuesday and is set to last several days, allowing for mine removal, delivery of food and medicine, and evacuation of civilians. Oleshky has had no electricity, heat or running water for months and faces a harsh winter, with residents cut off by mined roads. Ukrainian negotiator Dmytro Lubinets said the deal could serve as a model for future humanitarian missions.
1 source
Lula backers make final push before Brazil runoff Brazilians vote on Sunday in a runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with polls showing the race nearly even. Lula's supporters are working to turn out abstainers and win over undecided voters, especially in Minas Gerais, a bellwether state he lost in the first round. Lula trailed by less than 2% after the first round, while abstention hit a record 21%, and no candidate has ever won the presidency without carrying Minas Gerais. Bolsonaro has promised to pardon his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest for attempting a coup.
1 source

Germany, 1 story

Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany is in hospital after collapsing at reserves training, sidelined by a viral infection; his staff will take charge against Freiburg on Sunday.

Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany hospitalized after collapse at training Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany was hospitalized Friday after collapsing during a training session for the club's reserves. The 40-year-old had been dealing with a viral infection that affected his legs and acknowledged he pushed through the illness. Bayern said Kompany will undergo comprehensive exams and remain under medical care, and his coaching staff will take over training and match duties as the club prepares to face Freiburg on Sunday.
1 source

Business, 2 stories

SpaceX posted a $4.4 billion quarterly profit as allies scrambled for Starlink alternatives, while Instacart weighs bids from DoorDash and Uber; money and leverage are moving beneath the headlines.

SpaceX posts Q3 profit as US allies race to cut Starlink ties SpaceX swung to a $4.4 billion Q3 net profit on $14.6 billion in revenue, after a year-earlier loss, powered by Starlink and its Super Intelligence unit. The results came as US allies raced to develop alternatives to Starlink after Elon Musk restricted Ukraine's use of the service. European and Canadian projects such as OneWeb, Telesat, and IRIS² are not expected to be fully operational until at least 2028, and some rely on SpaceX rockets for launches.
1 source
Instacart reportedly held sale talks with DoorDash and Uber Instacart reportedly discussed selling itself to DoorDash and Uber. The grocery delivery company has hired an investment bank to evaluate its options and held acquisition talks with DoorDash, The Information reported, while Bloomberg said it also spoke with Uber, which walked away. Instacart's market cap is more than $13 billion and its stock is up 25% this year. The discussions are early and may not lead to a sale; shares jumped more than 9.2% on Friday, while DoorDash and Uber fell.
1 source

Tech, 3 stories

Two security stories actually matter today: AI-assisted researchers exposed decades-old PHP bugs already drawing millions of attacks, and Symantec caught an autonomous agent hijacking exposed AI models. The internet’s rust is showing.

PHP vulnerability forces site shutdowns after decades-old flaw exposed A newly discovered vulnerability in the programming language PHP forced website owners to patch immediately or take sites offline. The decades-old flaw, called 'Black October,' affects an estimated 70% of websites, including WordPress and Drupal, and has triggered millions of attempted hacks. The bug was found by human researchers in an AI-focused initiative, highlighting fears that AI agents will expose further cracks in the internet's rickety infrastructure.
1 source
AI makes years-old PHP bugs easier to exploit Security researchers at Calif, OpenAI, and Wiz used AI tools to uncover years-old vulnerabilities in the PHP scripting language, collectively called PHP2Shell, and criminal hackers quickly tried to exploit them, with millions of attempts logged within hours of disclosure. The flaws were known for years but were considered too complex for humans to exploit, researchers said. The PHP Foundation has not confirmed any successful attacks, but the episode highlights how AI is broadening which bugs are practically exploitable and adding pressure on security teams to keep up.
1 source
Autonomous attack agent hijacks exposed AI models, Symantec says Symantec researchers captured an autonomous attack agent designed to hijack exposed AI models and run up to 100,000 steps without human approval. The agent scanned the internet for unauthenticated OpenAI-style endpoints, then used 74 offensive tools to steal data, execute code, and mine cryptocurrency. Symantec said it found no evidence of real-world attacks, but the kit worked against a live target. The discovery shows attackers now use AI models as reasoning engines inside offensive tools, putting exposed AI systems at risk.
1 source

Sports, 1 story

Lewis Hamilton topped final US Grand Prix practice ahead of Max Verstappen, while Kimi Antonelli can clinch the title Sunday under a narrow scoring window. Qualifying comes first, though.

Lewis Hamilton edges Max Verstappen in final US GP practice Lewis Hamilton went quickest in final practice at the United States Grand Prix, edging Max Verstappen by 0.168 seconds. Charles Leclerc was third for Ferrari, which brought an upgraded package to Austin. Kimi Antonelli finished fourth after his best lap was deleted for track limits; he can clinch the title Sunday if he wins and George Russell finishes lower than ninth and Hamilton lower than fifth. Qualifying for Sunday's race is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET.
1 source

Game board

Scores from ESPN. Alternative and saved schedules are labeled on each game; game links open ESPN.