Edition, 16 stories.

Morning NOISE, Oct 26

U.S., 06:07, 5 sources.

Midterm attack ads draw backlash from grieving families

Campaigns in the 2026 midterms are using family tragedies in attack ads, often over the objections of relatives. In Georgia, Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson said he would keep airing an ad featuring murdered 8-year-old Secoriea Turner and her mother's 911 call. In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is spending $4 million on an ad that features his Democratic opponent's estranged mother, while a separate Republican ad against Sherrod Brown prompted a family's demand for removal. Voting-rights advocates are also watching for pressure on local officials to certify results and legal disputes that could delay outcomes.

Signal read, tense. The ravine beneath the fog. Illustration: NOISE.

Reporting used

GuardianWhat are the US midterm elections and why do they matter?AxiosCampaigns drag grieving families into midterm attack ads

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Signal read

Tense

Elections, Middle East tensions, AI and labor anxieties weigh on markets and politics.

Oct 20, Tense. Oct 21, Tense. Oct 22, Tense. Oct 23, Tense. Oct 24, Tense. Oct 25, Tense. Oct 26, Tense, latest.

Oct 20Oct 26

Markets	Last	Change
S&P futures	7,686.75	+0.35%
Dow futures	52,620.00	+0.43%
Nasdaq futures	29,282.00	+0.56%
CRWD	257.57	+8.25%
AMZN	248	-0.95%
SPCX	147.49	+1.89%

Political polls

Snapshot Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET

Carried from the Oct 25, 2026 evening snapshot. Source dates appear with each reading.

Election forecasts

Published probabilities, separate from polling vote shares.

Race to the WH

2026 Senate Election Forecast

Outcome	Probability	Source date
Florida Senate Republican win	80.6%	Oct 25, 2026
Michigan Senate Democratic win	83.3%	Oct 24, 2026
Minnesota Senate Democratic win	88.6%	Oct 25, 2026
Montana Senate Republican win	76.9%	Oct 25, 2026
Nebraska Senate Republican win	69.6%	Oct 25, 2026
North Carolina Senate Democratic win	93.6%	Oct 25, 2026
Ohio Senate Democratic win	69.0%	Oct 25, 2026
South Dakota Senate Republican win	90.3%	Oct 25, 2026
Texas Senate Democratic win	74.9%	Oct 25, 2026

Sources and checks5 publishers, 5 individual polls

Recent individual polls

Texas Senate

James Talarico 47.6%
Ken Paxton 45.2%
Ted Brown 1.4%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: VoteHub/Verasight.

Field dates Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 601.

Texas House

Vicente Gonzalez 50.0%
Eric Flores 43.0%
Eddie Espinoza 2.0%
Chris Royal 1.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

Field dates Oct 14, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 626.

Texas Senate

James Talarico 51.0%
Ken Paxton 47.0%
Ted Brown 2.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Slingshot Strategies. Sponsor: Texas Public Opinion Research.

Field dates Oct 15, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 969.

New Hampshire House

Stefany Shaheen 46.0%
Anthony DiLorenzo 42.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Saint Anselm.

Field dates Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 861.

New Hampshire House

Maggie Goodlander 54.0%
Lily Tang Williams 38.0%

Individual poll from VoteHub, Oct 23, 2026. Pollster: Saint Anselm.

Field dates Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Population: LV. Sample: 861.

Forecast targets

Race to the WH, 2026 Senate Election Forecast

Florida Senate Republican win: florida-senate-republican-win (R)
Michigan Senate Democratic win: michigan-senate-democratic-win (D)
Minnesota Senate Democratic win: minnesota-senate-democratic-win (D)
Montana Senate Republican win: montana-senate-republican-win (R)
Nebraska Senate Republican win: nebraska-senate-republican-win (R)
North Carolina Senate Democratic win: north-carolina-senate-democratic-win (D)
Ohio Senate Democratic win: ohio-senate-democratic-win (D)
South Dakota Senate Republican win: south-dakota-senate-republican-win (R)
Texas Senate Democratic win: texas-senate-democratic-win (D)

Publisher checks

VoteHub, Available.

Source date: Oct 23, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET.

VoteHub polling data, CC BY 4.0.

Decision Desk HQ, Headline values unavailable.

Source date: Oct 4, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 04, 2026, 17:45 ET. Latest check did not return a usable dated reading.

270toWin, Available.

Source date: Oct 21, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Race to the WH, Available.

Source date: Oct 25, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Economist/YouGov, Available.

Source date: Oct 20, 2026. Last attempt: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET. Last successful check: Oct 25, 2026, 17:45 ET.

Source-check times describe acquisition. They don't change a poll's field dates or a publisher's reading date. NOISE doesn't combine publishers' averages or calculate election forecasts.

U.S., 1 story

Pennsylvania has become one of the first states to require labels on AI-generated ads, though the law leaves 'significantly modified' undefined, a gap likely to be tested as political ad season heats up.

Sat 14:32 Shapiro signs Pennsylvania law requiring labels on AI-generated ads Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Thursday signed the Artificial Intelligence Deceptive Advertising Act, requiring any ad significantly modified or generated by AI to carry a label in the same format as the ad. The mandate applies to still images, video, audio, and text, regardless of where the ad was created, making Pennsylvania one of the first states to require AI content disclosures. The law exempts parody, satire, commentary, criticism, and clearly fictional content, but leaves undefined what counts as significantly modified.

1 source

Reporting used

VergePennsylvania will require labels on AI-generated ads

World, 5 stories

A student-led movement has broken the Serbian Progressive Party's 14-year grip, while Israeli voters head to the polls fearing internal violence as much as an Iranian bomb.

06:57 Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement in Serbia Update Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat on Sunday in Serbia's parliamentary election to a student-led opposition movement, ending his Serbian Progressive Party's 14-year grip on power. The Students' List won after nearly two years of protests that began following a 2024 train station canopy collapse that killed 16 people. Vucic blamed foreign interference and said he would keep fighting from the opposition.

3 sources

Follow-up to Vučić concedes defeat as student-led movement wins Serbia election, October 25

Reporting used

APSerbia’s political veteran Vucic outplayed all opponents. Then the students came

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06:30 Israeli Jews face election shaped by fear and division Israeli Jews vote on Tuesday in an election framed by intense anxieties over security, international isolation and the country's future. A recent poll found 39 percent of Israelis fear internal violence, matching the share who fear an Iranian nuclear weapon. The campaign has exposed deep divisions over the judiciary, ultra-Orthodox conscription and emigration, with both sides warning the result may do little to heal the rifts.

1 source

Reporting used

NYTIsraeli Jews Across the Spectrum Face an Election of Fears

00:00 Iran, US keep channels open as forces prepare for potential strikes Iran says it has not closed the door to diplomacy and is still passing messages to the United States via intermediaries. President Donald Trump said there would be no strike on Iran “today,” but two US officials said American forces are prepared to launch major military operations within 96 hours of an order. The developments come as US and Israeli elections approach, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning that Iran or its proxies could attack to disrupt the vote.

1 source

Reporting used

APIran says messages are still being passed to the US amid war concerns, and other Mideast news

01:00 A reckoning over who built South Africa's wine country South Africa's oldest wine farm, Groot Constantia, now tells the history of the enslaved people who worked there, listing names of those taken from Mozambique, Madagascar, India, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Historians say only a handful of estates explicitly acknowledge their history of enslavement, in an industry that sold R36.3bn of wine last year. Worker advocates draw a line from slavery to today's conditions, citing the eviction of at least 10 families from Groot Constantia since July. At Solms-Delta, descendants of enslaved and indigenous workers are trying to regain ownership after a government takeover pushed the estate into business rescue; negotiations are ongoing.

1 source

Reporting used

Guardian‘We built this land’: descendants of enslaved people are reclaiming their history across South Africa’s vineyards

Sun 14:00 Bulgaria heads to presidential runoff in blow to Ukraine-skeptic premier Bulgaria's presidential election will be decided in a runoff on Nov. 1 after incumbent Iliana Yotova led a low-turnout first round with 34.8%, ahead of Andrey Gyurov's 32%. The result is a setback for Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who backed Yotova and has questioned EU military aid to Ukraine and pushed for restoring ties with Russia. Gyurov, who supports Ukraine and condemned Russia's invasion, gained ground as drone attacks near Bulgaria's coast made security a central issue. Voters now choose between Yotova's 'president of peace' platform and Gyurov's pro-Western stance.

1 source

Reporting used

BloombergBulgaria Faces Second Ballot in Blow to Ukraine-Skeptic Premier

Germany, 3 stories

Audi's $4bn US factory announcement at a Trump rally has embarrassed Germany's unions as VW cuts 100,000 domestic jobs, while Berlin moves to buy Ukrainian cruise missiles.

06:59 Audi CEO faces union backlash after Trump rally appearance Audi CEO Gernot Döllner has come under fire from Germany's IG Metall union after appearing with Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Georgia on Saturday. Union chief Christiane Benner called the appearance "deeply embarrassing, politically unacceptable" and said it breached Audi's political neutrality rules. At the rally, Trump announced a $4.2 billion Audi factory in Macon that would build 200,000 vehicles a year and create about 4,500 jobs. The project still needs Volkswagen supervisory board approval, and union leaders are seeking safeguards for German sites amid VW's job-cutting program.

3 sources

Reporting used

DWGermany news: Union slams Audi CEO for joining Trump at campaign rally, while Chancellor Merz and President Steinmeier embark on separate Asia tours The LocalGerman union slams Audi boss's appearance at Trump rally

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Sun 09:43 Volkswagen is cutting 100,000 German jobs as Audi plans $4bn US factory Audi will spend $4bn to build its first US factory in Macon, Georgia, making 200,000 Q7, Q8 and Q9 SUVs a year and creating 4,500 jobs. Chief executive Gernot Döllner announced the plan at a Trump campaign rally. Parent Volkswagen is cutting up to 100,000 jobs in Germany, blaming US tariffs that cost it up to €5bn a year, Chinese competition and the shift to electric vehicles. The US factory will shift some SUV production from Bratislava, Slovakia, adding to tensions at Volkswagen's German home base.

2 sources

Reporting used

GuardianVolkswagen to build $4bn Audi SUV factory in US despite job cuts at home

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01:00 Germany prepares to buy Ukrainian cruise missiles for Bundeswehr Germany is preparing to buy an initial batch of the Bars, a low-cost Ukrainian-made cruise missile, for testing by the Bundeswehr. The deal is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks, with technical trials early next year and a possible larger order of several hundred if results are satisfactory. The purchase marks the first known acquisition of an offensive weapon developed in Ukraine for Germany's own use and is part of a growing trend of NATO members exploring Ukrainian military technology. It comes as Berlin seeks cheaper, mass-producible long-range weapons under a major rearmament drive.

1 source

Reporting used

FTGermany to tap Ukrainian tech with missile purchase

Business, 4 stories

With the Fed likely to hold rates despite 3.7% inflation, investors are looking to Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon for proof the AI buildout can sustain earnings; Musk's neocloud warning only deepens the skepticism.

06:14 Fed expected to pause rate hikes despite persistent inflation The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its Oct. 28 meeting despite September inflation running at 3.7%, well above its 2% target. Traders put a 9% chance on a hike this month and expect a quarter-point increase in December. With new chair Kevin Warsh giving little forward guidance, investors will watch his press conference for clues about how long the Fed can tolerate elevated prices amid concerns over government spending and the Iran war's impact on energy costs.

3 sources

Reporting used

FTWill the Fed drop any hints on rate rises?

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07:37 Stocks rise ahead of tech earnings and central bank decisions US stock futures rose Monday as oil prices fell and investors braced for a week of major earnings and central bank meetings. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are set to report results that will test whether heavy AI spending is paying off, joining Asian chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will deliver policy decisions while officials wrestle with inflation and elevated bond yields. The reports follow two weeks of steep losses for tech stocks, and analysts say investors want proof that the AI buildout can sustain earnings.

2 sources

Reporting used

BloombergStocks Gain Before Tech Earnings as Oil Declines: Markets Wrap APWorld shares mostly advance after a decline on Wall Street, and oil prices fall more than 1%

06:13 Elon Musk warns over 200 neoclouds face 'guppy-level death' as stocks fall Shares of major neocloud companies fell Monday after Elon Musk said more than 200 of them will face 'guppy-level death and consolidation.' Nebius, CoreWeave, and Iren dropped more than 4% in premarket trading before paring losses to between 2% and 3%. Musk said debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for companies without substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. The warning adds to investor concerns that debt-fueled AI infrastructure expansion may not generate long-term returns, though Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called demand 'off the charts.'

1 source

Reporting used

CNBCNeocloud stocks fall as Elon Musk says more than 200 of them face 'guppy-level death'

07:42 Apollo Global to buy nearly 10% stake in Mubadala Capital Apollo Global Management is finalizing a deal to buy nearly 10% of Mubadala Capital, the alternative asset management subsidiary of Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund. The deal is expected to be announced Monday, with financial terms not immediately disclosed. Mubadala Capital advises and administers more than $755 billion, while its core alternatives businesses manage over $60 billion. The investment deepens Apollo's ties to Abu Dhabi and marks a US firm taking a direct stake in the region's investment vision.

1 source

Reporting used

CNBCApollo to buy nearly 10% stake in Abu Dhabi-backed alternative asset manager Mubadala Capital

Tech, 2 stories

A seven-minute AI 'Odyssey' from Grok is already being panned for lacking artistry. Meanwhile, data centre opposition has become a midterm issue, with 16 states weighing bans or moratoriums.

Sun 19:44 US data centre backlash builds ahead of midterms Opposition to data centre expansion is mounting in the US and is set to be a key issue in the 3 November midterm elections. There are about 12,250 data centres worldwide, which consume more electricity than France, and 16 US states have proposed laws to ban or temporarily block new facilities. President Donald Trump has called the pushback a 'sick conspiracy,' while local concerns focus on energy use, water, noise, and air pollution; supporters say the facilities create jobs, though a Brookings Center report found fewer than industry advocates claim.

2 sources

Reporting used

BBCData centre backlash grows ahead of US midterms - here's what you need to know

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Sun 17:31 Grok releases seven minutes of AI-generated 'Odyssey' Grok released the first seven minutes of its AI-generated 'Odyssey' three months after Elon Musk promised a full-length, historically accurate movie version of the epic. The clip, billed as Episode 1 of an Odyssey series, was made with Wonder Studios and director Dev Walker. TechCrunch's Anthony Ha wrote that the footage lacked artistry and human interest. The release follows Musk's criticism of Christopher Nolan's 'Odyssey,' which cast nonwhite and transgender actors and has become a box office hit and likely awards front-runner, testing whether AI-generated long-form media can be taken seriously.

1 source

Reporting used

TCGrok releases the first seven minutes of its AI-generated ‘Odyssey’